The latest poll conducted by Insa
for the newspaper Bild on the eve of the German elections shows
the CDU-CSU still leading, but by a small margin (29.5%). Merz
would need at least 30 to be able to negotiate from a position
of strength.
Second, Alternative fuer Deutschland (AfD) is expected to
receive 21% of the vote, more than doubling its share in 2021
(10.3%). Olaf Scholz's Social Democrats are given 15%, down more
than ten points from the previous elections (25.7%).
Robert Habeck's Greens stopped at 12.5% (they reached 14.8%
in 2021), while the Left is smiling at 7.5%, up from a meagre
4.9% in 2021, when it failed to reach the threshold but entered
parliament thanks to some electoral law provisions. Sahra
Wagenknecht's group (5%) is competing for a seat in the new
Bundestag, as are the FDP liberals, who, with 4.5%, see the
result of the 2021 collapse (11.5%) and will remain out of
parliament.
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